Stake percentage
The higher the stake is relative to bankroll, the faster a losing streak becomes a decision problem. Many fixed-odds bettors start around 1% to 2%.
Strategy Tools
LiveBankroll Risk Calculator
Check stake size, drawdown and bankroll pressure before you bet.
Stake percentageLosing-streak drawdownFree · no signup
Start here
A bankroll risk calculator checks whether the stake is too large
The question is not only whether a bet has value. It is whether your bankroll can handle a losing run at that stake size. The basic check is simple: stake % = stake size divided by bankroll.
Start with stake percentage.
Then check losing-run drawdown.
Positive EV still needs bankroll discipline.
Quick answer
How do you know if the stake is too large?
- 1% to 2% per bet is usually conservative.
- 5% is already aggressive if losing streaks are possible.
- 10% or more can damage a bankroll fast.
- If the probability estimate is weak, treat the edge as fragile.
Bankroll risk calculator
Enter bankroll, stake, odds and win probability
Check whether the stake is too heavy before you bet. A positive-EV price can still hit a losing run, so stake size has to fit the bankroll.
Common scenarios
Start with an example, then replace it with your own bankroll, stake and line.
Odds format
Live calculation
Stake looks controlled
The stake is a small share of bankroll, so a short losing run leaves room to adjust. Still set a stop point and do not chase if the estimate was wrong.
Key numbers
Stake %
2%
To drawdown limit
15 注
Line EV
9.2%
Stake as % of bankroll
2%
Bankroll units
50 注
Break-even probability
47.62%
EV percentage
9.2%
Expected result over this run
$920
Bets before drawdown limit
15 注
Losing-streak drawdown
After 3 losses
$9,400
6% 回撤
After 5 losses
$9,000
10% 回撤
After 10 losses
$8,000
20% 回撤
Next step
Cut the stake first if the bankroll pressure is too high, then check EV. A good price is not enough if the stake is too large.
Important note
This is a risk estimate, not a profit guarantee. Real betting still depends on probability error, line movement, limits, losing streaks and your own risk tolerance.
Stake looks controlled
Stake as % of bankroll: 2%
How to use it
Use the bankroll risk calculator before staking
Enter bankroll, stake, odds and your estimated win probability, then review stake percentage, drawdown, EV and risk status.
- 1
Enter bankroll
- 2
Enter stake
- 3
Add odds and win probability
- 4
Read drawdown and EV
Bankroll management
How to read bankroll risk
Bankroll management is not about betting tiny forever. The real danger is not one losing bet. It is a losing streak at the wrong stake size.
Losing-streak drawdown
One bad bet is not the real test. The real test is whether you can take five or ten losses without chasing or changing the plan.
Positive EV vs bankroll survival
EV tells you whether the price looks valuable. Bankroll risk tells you whether the stake is survivable. You need both checks.
FAQ
Bankroll risk calculator questions
Clear answers on bankroll units, stake percentage, losing-streak drawdown, probability error and positive-EV staking risk.
What is a bankroll risk calculator?
A bankroll risk calculator checks whether your planned stake is too large for your bankroll. It estimates stake percentage, bankroll units, drawdown from losing streaks and whether the line is positive or negative EV under your win-probability estimate.
How much of my bankroll should I stake per bet?
Many bettors treat 1% to 2% per bet as conservative. Around 5% is aggressive, and 10% or more can put serious pressure on the bankroll after only a few losses.
Is 5% of bankroll per bet too much?
It is aggressive. Five losses at 5% per bet can cut roughly a quarter of the bankroll before emotion, chasing and market limits are even considered.
Can a positive EV bet still be risky?
Yes. Positive EV is a long-term estimate, not protection against short-term variance. If the stake is too large, a losing run can damage the bankroll before the edge has time to play out.
What does bankroll drawdown mean?
Drawdown is the drop from your starting bankroll after losses. For example, if a $10,000 bankroll falls to $8,000, the drawdown is 20%.
What is a bankroll unit?
A bankroll unit is one planned stake. If your bankroll is $10,000 and your stake is $200, you have 50 units.
How is this different from a Kelly calculator?
A Kelly calculator estimates a theoretical stake from odds and win probability. A bankroll risk calculator checks whether the stake you plan to use creates too much drawdown pressure.
What happens if my win-probability estimate is wrong?
The EV and risk readout can change quickly. If a small probability error flips the result, treat the edge as fragile and use a smaller stake or skip the bet.
What does risk of ruin mean in bankroll management?
Risk of ruin is the chance that a losing run cuts your bankroll so deeply that you can no longer follow the staking plan. Large stakes, thin edges and bad probability estimates all increase that risk.
Should I bet if the calculator shows negative EV?
Mathematically, no. Negative EV means the price does not pay enough for the risk under your estimate. Smaller stakes only slow the loss; they do not make the price good.
DEEPER CONTEXT