Flat staking is the baseline
Flat staking keeps the base stake unchanged. Every progression should first be compared with this baseline.
Strategy Tools
LiveBetting Progression Risk Comparator
Free betting progression comparator: compare flat staking, Martingale, Fibonacci and Paroli by bankroll pressure, drawdown, next stake and stop-loss risk.
Flat / MartingaleLosing-run stake pressureFree · no signup
Sports betting maths path
Know what this result can—and cannot—tell you
Current check
Betting Progression Comparator
Find where a progression hits a hard limit.
Optional risk branches · Recommended next check
Bankroll Risk Calculator
Stress-test the candidate stake against the bankroll.
View the complete calculation path
- 1Odds Converter
- 2Bet Calculator
- 3Vig / Margin Calculator
- 4Expected Value Calculator
- 5Kelly Criterion Calculator
- 6Bankroll Risk Calculator
- 7Losing Streak Risk Simulator
- 8Profit and Stop-Loss Planner
Optional risk branches
Use these only for cross-book execution or to inspect how a staking progression can fail.
Staking progression comparator
Enter bankroll, base stake, odds and win probability
Compare deterministic stake paths, 5-loss drawdown, the sixth stake, maximum stake and stop-loss distance. Odds and win probability affect only the separate EV readout.
Common scenarios
Odds format
Systems to compare
Keep at least one system selected. Start with flat staking and Martingale if you want the cleanest contrast.
Live comparison
This setup is too heavy to use as written
Martingale or a similar chasing setup is pushing the next stake close to a bankroll-pressure zone. Do not run this long term.
Main readout
Most pressure
Martingale
Next stake after 5 losses
$6,400
5-loss drawdown
$6,200
Line EV
9.2%
System details
Flat staking
ControlledNext after 5 losses
$200
5 losses
$1,000
To stop-loss
8
Maximum stake
$200
First stake above limit
Not reached
Martingale
DangerNext after 5 losses
$6,400
5 losses
$6,200
To stop-loss
4
Maximum stake
$112,589,990,684,262,400
First stake above limit
5
Fibonacci staking
DangerNext after 5 losses
$1,600
5 losses
$2,400
To stop-loss
5
Maximum stake
$2,517,253,805,000
First stake above limit
7
Paroli
ControlledNext after 5 losses
$200
5 losses
$1,000
To stop-loss
8
Maximum stake
$800
First stake above limit
Not reached
Flat staking
Next after 5 losses
$200
5 losses
$1,000
To stop-loss
8
Maximum stake
$200
First stake above limit
Not reached
Martingale
Next after 5 losses
$6,400
5 losses
$6,200
To stop-loss
4
Maximum stake
$112,589,990,684,262,400
First stake above limit
5
Fibonacci staking
Next after 5 losses
$1,600
5 losses
$2,400
To stop-loss
5
Maximum stake
$2,517,253,805,000
First stake above limit
7
Paroli
Next after 5 losses
$200
5 losses
$1,000
To stop-loss
8
Maximum stake
$800
First stake above limit
Not reached
How the stake grows on each system's trigger path
Flat, Martingale and Fibonacci use a loss path. Paroli uses a capped three-win path because it resets after a loss.
Flat · loss path$200
Bet 1
Bet 2
Bet 3
Bet 4
Bet 5
Bet 6
Martingale · loss path$6,400
Bet 1
Bet 2
Bet 3
Bet 4
Bet 5
Bet 6
Fibonacci · loss path$1,600
Bet 1
Bet 2
Bet 3
Bet 4
Bet 5
Bet 6
Paroli · win path$800
Bet 1
Bet 2
Bet 3
Bet 4
Bet 5
Bet 6
How the stake grows on each system's trigger path
Flat, Martingale and Fibonacci use a loss path. Paroli uses a capped three-win path because it resets after a loss.
Flat · loss path$200
Bet 1
Bet 2
Bet 3
Bet 4
Bet 5
Bet 6
Martingale · loss path$6,400
Bet 1
Bet 2
Bet 3
Bet 4
Bet 5
Bet 6
Fibonacci · loss path$1,600
Bet 1
Bet 2
Bet 3
Bet 4
Bet 5
Bet 6
Paroli · win path$800
Bet 1
Bet 2
Bet 3
Bet 4
Bet 5
Bet 6
Important note
A staking progression cannot turn a bad price into a good one. The risk rating comes from the deterministic stake path, bankroll and limits; win probability affects only EV.
Martingale
5-loss drawdown: $6,200
Start with risk
The real test is not the first stake. It is what happens after several losses
Progression systems look tidy until the next stake becomes a real bankroll decision.
Quick answer
Does Martingale or any staking progression make you more likely to win?
- No. Martingale, Fibonacci and Paroli do not improve expected value. They only change when the stake gets larger.
- The practical test is the next stake after a losing run. Changing the win-probability input does not make that path or its risk rating safer.
Method
How this comparator works
The comparator uses each system's real trigger. Flat, Martingale and Fibonacci are checked on a losing path; Paroli is checked on a capped three-win path and resets after a loss. Bankroll, stake, planned bets and limits determine the pressure metrics and risk rating. Odds and win probability are kept separate and used only for EV.
Martingale is about the next stake
Doubling after losses makes the next stake and drawdown rise together. The practical limits are bankroll, table limits and discipline.
Paroli is not loss chasing
Paroli presses after wins and resets after losses. The risk is giving back winnings by pushing them into the next run.
How to use it
Compare staking systems in 4 steps
Enter at least six planned bets, bankroll, stake and limits to compare deterministic pressure. Add odds and win probability for the separate EV check.
- 1
Enter bankroll and base stake
- 2
Add odds and win probability
- 3
Set the horizon and both limits
- 4
Compare the readout
How to read it
How to read a staking progression comparison
Do not judge a system by whether it can recover on paper. Look at the next stake, the drawdown and whether you would actually stop when the line is hit.
A large next stake changes behaviour
If the sixth stake already feels uncomfortable, the system is too heavy. More bankroll is not always the answer.
Limits break chasing systems
Martingale assumes you can keep increasing. Real betting has bankroll limits, table limits, market limits and stop-loss rules.
Decide whether you need a progression at all
If flat staking already makes the risk clear, a more complicated progression may only make the plan harder to follow.
FAQ
Betting progression comparator questions
Answers on flat staking, Martingale, Fibonacci, Paroli, table limits and loss-chasing risk.
What is a betting progression comparator?
A betting progression comparator compares deterministic stake paths for flat staking, Martingale, Fibonacci and Paroli under the same bankroll, base stake, horizon and limits. Odds and win probability are shown separately for EV and do not change the pressure rating.
Does Martingale guarantee a profit?
No. Martingale doubles after losses, so one win can recover earlier losses in theory. In real betting, bankroll limits, table limits, market limits and losing runs can stop the sequence before recovery happens.
What is the difference between flat staking and Martingale?
Flat staking uses the same stake every time. Martingale increases the next stake after a loss. It can look smooth during short runs, but the next stake can grow quickly after several losses.
Is Fibonacci staking safer than Martingale?
Fibonacci usually grows more slowly than Martingale, but it is still a loss-side progression. If the losing run continues, cumulative drawdown and the next stake both keep rising.
How is Paroli different from Martingale?
Paroli increases after wins and resets after losses. Martingale increases after losses. Paroli is not a chasing system, but it still does not improve the expected value of the underlying price.
Can a staking progression change expected value?
No. Expected value is driven by the odds and the true win probability. In this comparator, win probability changes only the EV readout; the deterministic stake path, stop-loss distance and risk rating stay the same.
Should a small bankroll use chasing systems?
Usually no. A small bankroll can hit a stop-loss, table limit or psychological limit after only a few losses. Flat staking is often easier to control.
Why do table limits matter for Martingale?
Martingale needs the stake to keep increasing after losses. If a sportsbook, casino table or exchange limit blocks the next stake, the recovery assumption breaks.
The progression changes the stake. Can the bankroll handle it?
After comparing systems, take the stake that feels realistic and run it through the Bankroll Risk Calculator to check drawdown and bankroll pressure.
Optional checks
Other checks if you need them
MARKET CONTEXT
Use the calculation in the right betting context
The tool handles one mathematical task. These guides explain the market, settlement and risk assumptions around that result.
Start here
Sports Betting Math: From Odds to Session Limits
See how odds, payout, margin, EV, candidate stake, bankroll pressure and session limits connect before using the next calculator.
Read article
Market contextFootball Betting Guide
Use real 1X2, totals and Asian handicap examples to put odds, payouts and market prices into context.
Read article
RacingHorse Racing Betting Guide
Separate fixed odds from pari-mutuel pools before using a price or payout calculator.
Read article