Flat staking is the baseline
Flat staking keeps the base stake unchanged. Every progression should first be compared with this baseline.
Strategy Tools
LiveBetting Progression Comparator
Compare flat staking, Martingale, Fibonacci and Paroli before a losing run tests your bankroll.
Flat / MartingaleLosing-run stake pressureFree · no signup
Start with risk
The real test is not the first stake. It is what happens after several losses
Progression systems look tidy until the next stake becomes a real bankroll decision.
Quick answer
Does Martingale or any staking progression make you more likely to win?
- No. Martingale, Fibonacci and Paroli do not improve expected value. They only change when the stake gets larger.
- The practical test is the next stake after a losing run. If that number feels too large, cut the base stake or use flat staking.
Staking progression comparator
Enter bankroll, base stake, odds and win probability
Run the same line through several staking systems and compare the pressure: 5-loss drawdown, next stake size, maximum stake and stop-loss distance.
Common scenarios
Odds format
Systems to compare
Keep at least one system selected. Start with flat staking and Martingale if you want the cleanest contrast.
Live comparison
Progression pressure is high. Cut the base stake first
A few losses can make the next stake uncomfortable before any long-term edge has time to show. Reduce the base stake first.
Main readout
Most pressure
Martingale
Next stake after 5 losses
$6,400
5-loss drawdown
$6,200
Line EV
9.2%
System details
Flat staking
ControlledNext stake
$200
5 losses
$1,000
To stop-loss
8
Maximum stake
$200
Martingale
HighNext stake
$6,400
5 losses
$6,200
To stop-loss
4
Maximum stake
$102,400
Fibonacci staking
HighNext stake
$1,600
5 losses
$2,400
To stop-loss
5
Maximum stake
$11,000
Paroli
ControlledNext stake
$200
5 losses
$1,000
To stop-loss
8
Maximum stake
$200
Flat staking
Next stake
$200
5 losses
$1,000
To stop-loss
8
Maximum stake
$200
Martingale
Next stake
$6,400
5 losses
$6,200
To stop-loss
4
Maximum stake
$102,400
Fibonacci staking
Next stake
$1,600
5 losses
$2,400
To stop-loss
5
Maximum stake
$11,000
Paroli
Next stake
$200
5 losses
$1,000
To stop-loss
8
Maximum stake
$200
How the stake grows during a losing run
This is a pressure test, not a prediction of the next result.
Flat$200
Bet 1
Bet 2
Bet 3
Bet 4
Bet 5
Bet 6
Martingale$6,400
Bet 1
Bet 2
Bet 3
Bet 4
Bet 5
Bet 6
Fibonacci$1,600
Bet 1
Bet 2
Bet 3
Bet 4
Bet 5
Bet 6
Paroli$200
Bet 1
Bet 2
Bet 3
Bet 4
Bet 5
Bet 6
How the stake grows during a losing run
This is a pressure test, not a prediction of the next result.
Flat$200
Bet 1
Bet 2
Bet 3
Bet 4
Bet 5
Bet 6
Martingale$6,400
Bet 1
Bet 2
Bet 3
Bet 4
Bet 5
Bet 6
Fibonacci$1,600
Bet 1
Bet 2
Bet 3
Bet 4
Bet 5
Bet 6
Paroli$200
Bet 1
Bet 2
Bet 3
Bet 4
Bet 5
Bet 6
Important note
A staking progression cannot turn a bad price into a good one. It changes variance, maximum stake size, stop-loss speed and decision pressure.
Martingale
5-loss drawdown: $6,200
Method
How this comparator works
The first version uses a fixed losing-run stress test. It walks through each system, calculates the 5-loss drawdown, next stake, maximum stake and how many straight losses reach your stop-loss. It does not predict results; it shows whether the worst early run is too heavy.
Martingale is about the next stake
Doubling after losses makes the next stake and drawdown rise together. The practical limits are bankroll, table limits and discipline.
Paroli is not loss chasing
Paroli presses after wins and resets after losses. The risk is giving back winnings by pushing them into the next run.
How to use it
Compare staking systems in 4 steps
Enter bankroll, base stake, fixed odds and win probability, then compare flat staking, Martingale, Fibonacci and Paroli pressure.
- 1
Enter bankroll and base stake
- 2
Add odds and win probability
- 3
Set a stop-loss amount
- 4
Compare the readout
How to read it
How to read a staking progression comparison
Do not judge a system by whether it can recover on paper. Look at the next stake, the drawdown and whether you would actually stop when the line is hit.
A large next stake changes behaviour
If the sixth stake already feels uncomfortable, the system is too heavy. More bankroll is not always the answer.
Limits break chasing systems
Martingale assumes you can keep increasing. Real betting has bankroll limits, table limits, market limits and stop-loss rules.
Decide whether you need a progression at all
If flat staking already makes the risk clear, a more complicated progression may only make the plan harder to follow.
FAQ
Betting progression comparator questions
Answers on flat staking, Martingale, Fibonacci, Paroli, table limits and loss-chasing risk.
What is a betting progression comparator?
A betting progression comparator compares staking systems such as flat staking, Martingale, Fibonacci and Paroli under the same bankroll, base stake, odds and win-probability estimate. It shows which system creates the most bankroll pressure.
Does Martingale guarantee a profit?
No. Martingale doubles after losses, so one win can recover earlier losses in theory. In real betting, bankroll limits, table limits, market limits and losing runs can stop the sequence before recovery happens.
What is the difference between flat staking and Martingale?
Flat staking uses the same stake every time. Martingale increases the next stake after a loss. It can look smooth during short runs, but the next stake can grow quickly after several losses.
Is Fibonacci staking safer than Martingale?
Fibonacci usually grows more slowly than Martingale, but it is still a loss-side progression. If the losing run continues, cumulative drawdown and the next stake both keep rising.
How is Paroli different from Martingale?
Paroli increases after wins and resets after losses. Martingale increases after losses. Paroli is not a chasing system, but it still does not improve the expected value of the underlying price.
Can a staking progression change expected value?
No. Expected value is driven by the odds and the true win probability. A staking progression changes stake size, variance, drawdown speed and bankroll pressure.
Should a small bankroll use chasing systems?
Usually no. A small bankroll can hit a stop-loss, table limit or psychological limit after only a few losses. Flat staking is often easier to control.
Why do table limits matter for Martingale?
Martingale needs the stake to keep increasing after losses. If a sportsbook, casino table or exchange limit blocks the next stake, the recovery assumption breaks.
The progression changes the stake. Can the bankroll handle it?
After comparing systems, take the stake that feels realistic and run it through the Bankroll Risk Calculator to check drawdown and bankroll pressure.
DEEPER CONTEXT